Coalition wars in Maharashtra

With the two main alliances coming to a broad agreement on seats, the battle lines for the Maharashtra assembly polls have become clear. In the incumbent Mahayuti alliance, the BJP is set to contest at least 150 seats while the Congress, which will contest at least 105 seats, is the lead player for the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The Shiv Sena factions are expected to face off in a fair number of seats — the Sena factions will field close to 180 sainiks in the elections. The loser in seat sharing seems to be the NCP in the Mahayuti, which is contesting 45 seats, even as the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) is likely to contest 85. That doesn’t surprise given the pivot of this election is Sharad Pawar, the patriarch of Maharashtra politics, whose tactical acumen, mobilisational ability, and organisational skills are driving the MVA’s campaign.
The MVA will be hoping to repeat its general election showing — it won 30 of the 48 seats with a 43.71% vote share. The Mahayuti, however, ran the MVA close on votes, with a share of 43.55%. Thus, it is hard for either alliance to claim advantage. The squabbles within the MVA over leadership and seats have affected its preparations. The Mahayuti has been better off on this count though its constituents, especially the BJP, are facing rebellion within their ranks over nominations.
The splits in the Shiv Sena and NCP triggered a churn in state politics and saw parties cross ideological fault lines. For years, voters aligned broadly on ideological lines, with Sena-BJP offering a Hindutva alternative to the Congress that had defined the state’s politics since the 1960s. Such a choice is unavailable this time since the Sena factions are key to both alliances. In fact, this election is also a battle for the Sena legacy; both factions have declared their commitment to upholding Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy and Hindutva to attract the traditional Sena vote. This has limited the MVA in campaigning from an ideological platform and forced it to trust anti-incumbency to facilitate a win. Farmer distress, unemployment, and reservations will likely feature in the MVA campaign. The Mahayuti has championed welfare as the defining feature of its governance and hopes that schemes such as Ladki Bahin Yojana will make it a pro-incumbency vote.
The battle for Maharashtra is not just about politics but also for the control of India’s financial capital. This is what makes the contest so competitive and crucial for national parties, for the echo of the resultwill be heard in New Delhi.